Fire in the Balisier...

There is a rumor making the rounds that the People's National Movement had a very in depth and scientific poll conducted on what, if any, the impact of Jack Warner's green ILP party might have on any future elections, and the findings have allegedly stunned the hierarchy and leadership of the party into a stupor.

Suggesting that if an election were to be called the PNM risks being decimated throughout their strongholds on 'the corridor' and with even the die hard 'Diego Martins' (all three of which were almost breeched by the Congress of the People and Garvin Nicholas in 2010) indicating  that they would swing away from the PNM, the party now finds itself between a rock, a hard place and an eternity in opposition if not outright political destruction.

For many the leadership of Dr. Keith Rowley remains the greatest turn off as they see nothing of substance in his offerings or in exchange for their loyalty and are fed up of being the lowest rung on the national totem pole. Worse, the party is being seen as selling out its soul to outsiders like Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj, David Abdulah's struggling MSJ and other small time operations willing to march to Rowley's beat, a far cry from the once proud and independent traditions of the party. Rumor also has it that the party hierarchy and finance caucus are very unhappy with Dr. Rowley's style of leadership and have branded him a loose cannon and out of control. Whether or not a list of possible candidates for his replacement really exists it is safe to say that, judging by the public posture of some formerly vociferous and frontline members, the party may have adopted a pull back in the hope that it can re-emerge fresh and untainted after his constitutionally due removal in 2014.

So what now?

The fact of the matter is this is a two horse race, and for any newcomer to rise, someone has to give way. That the poll was not released to the public, the media or even the party membership is the most telling of all, and the violent devolution taking place in East Port of Spain, Sea Lots and the Beetham presents further evidence of that party's failure to deal with complex social development issues and the lack of representation in the at risk communities may be the nail that seals that party's coffin. The rebuilding of the party promised to the electorate after the double whammy trouncings in May and July 2010 never happened, replaced by a plan to prod and poke at the government continuously in the hopes that it would fall apart, leaving the PNM to return to power by default. Clearly this has not worked, and despite some serious scandals the fact that the public outcry against the government has been as muted as it has been is testimony to the continuing mistrust of the PNM as a viable alternative. With no true savior waiting in the wings the public seem to have resigned to the reality that, until better could be done, the lesser worse will have to continue.

So what are they to do?

I believe that the major problem is the party may have underestimated the depths of the wounds inflicted on the national psyche under Patrick Manning, and instead of wasting its energy trying to destabilize the government the PNM should make a concerted effort to regain trust if for no other reason than to offer itself as a contrite and credible alternative to government in the future. What I know and have said publicly is that the PNM cannot survive much longer under the wild and reckless leadership of Keith Rowley and he needs to be removed before it is too late. The dwindling attendances at his public gatherings is testimony to this, and the leadership of the party owe it to their members to have a frank and honest discussion as to the current fortunes and future of that party.

Going forward it seems that the PNM has a lot of work to do if it ever intends to return to greatness, and rather than constantly harping on everyone else, perhaps it is time they looked inward and cleaned their own house for a change, that is, if they truly want to prevail.